The Weekly Finger: On Green and Gold, and Oil and Gold

What an incredible start to the 2026 World Cup! The boys in green and gold have shown the world that the Aussie spirit lives on strong, securing an absolutely amazing 2-0 victory against Turkiye.

As captured in the above quote by the legendary Mr Keane, the harsh reality of the mindset difference was clear.

Goals from Nestory Irankunda in the 27th minute and Connor Metcalfe in the 75th minute sealed a brilliant, hard fought match that sets a massive tone for the rest of the tournament.

This Week's Podcast: Nasal spray and the four Ps

The latest episode of the Think Investment Podcast, powered by Small Caps, is officially live. You can listen to the full episode here.

Here is a quick wrap of what Heath Moss and I got stuck into in this edition:

• Traditional Boardroom Networking: I break down our highly successful, no phones, no pitch deck roundtable format at the Royal Exchange of Sydney, where we recently hosted Critical Minerals Group (CMG) for a raw, high value hour and a half of pure networking with sophisticated investors and brokers.
• The 4 Ps of Small Cap Investing: Heath shares his strict checklist for weeding out speculative duds and finding real winners: Pesos (the money), People (the management), Pegs (the project), and Place (the jurisdiction).
• Life Changers and Biotech Breaks: We look at the commercial realities of biotech firms hitting the market, including LTR Pharma's (ASX: LTP) new 10 minute telehealth nasal spray for erectile dysfunction launching in the US.
• Brutal Corporate Honesty: A look at Litchfield Minerals (ASX: LMS) following their recent assay sell off, and why a brutally honest conversation with management matters more than investor panic.
• Global Market & Sports Wrap: We track the tech dips on the S&P 500, Oracle's recent earnings miss, the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, and the macro drivers behind oil and gold, before wrapping up with our weekend multi bets across the NRL and AFL.

Crude Realities: Inventories scraping bottom

The broader market might be pricing in geopolitical relief because it looks like we finally have "peace" in Iran for the 50th time, but the underlying commodity data tells a completely different story.

Ironically, while peace in Iran brings distinct disinflationary situations that should ultimately be supportive of gold, the physical energy complex is singing a very different tune.

If you look at the long term chart of Weekly US Ending Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products above, inventories are scraping multi year bottoms.

The smart money is noticing that we are right at tank bottoms, and drawing down this hard before the peak US summer driving season kicks into full gear is a massive warning sign.

Compounding this supply squeeze is the critical situation unfolding at the primary trading hub in Oklahoma. You can read the full breakdown on why Cushing is approaching danger levels here: CNN Business: Cushing Oil Inventory.

The storage facilities at Cushing are the vital heartbeat of US crude infrastructure, serving as the official delivery point for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contracts.

When inventories here fall to critically low operational floors, it triggers severe liquidity issues and massive physical constraints across the entire energy complex.

We are not just talking about a minor seasonal drawdown; tanks are hitting operational "sludge" levels where oil can no longer be pushed out efficiently through the pipelines.

This operational gridlock threatens to choke the supply chain just as domestic refineries ramp up production to satisfy peak summer energy demand.

The relief of peace may be hindered by the fact the pipes shut down when they’re not used.

El Niño is Officially Here

Shifting closer to home, the climate macro landscape just received a major update. The Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared the commencement of El Niño.

You can read the detailed report here: Sydney Morning Herald: El Niño Has Officially Begun.

This official declaration brings an escalated risk of severe drought, extreme heat waves, and intense bushfire conditions across Australia.

From an agricultural and economic perspective, this is a critical development that will heavily influence local supply chains, soft commodity pricing, and regional power grids over the coming months.

The Gold Case: Peace and disinflation

While the energy markets are screaming supply squeeze, the geopolitical backdrop is offering up a classic macroeconomic setup for precious metals.

Even though it feels like we are looking at a tentative peace in Iran for the 50th time as mentioned, the broader economic consequences shouldn't be ignored.

A genuine wind down of Middle Eastern tensions introduces a powerful disinflationary situation to the global economy.

De-escalation pulls the geopolitical risk premium straight out of shipping lanes and supply chains, while naturally cooling energy costs.

Historically, this shift toward cooled inflation drives down government bond yields and lowers real interest rates. For non-yielding assets like gold, these disinflationary moves create a structurally supportive environment that typically triggers the next leg up for the metal.

Stay safe and all the best

James