The Weekly Finger: Geopolitical Whiplash, the Copper Play, and Washington’s Poolside Circus

Welcome to another edition of The Weekly Finger. Grab a coffee and settle in, because the global macro landscape has managed to shift on its axis yet again over the last few days.

We are moving away from the domestic interest rate grind for a moment to focus on a massive bout of geopolitical whiplash, an essential commodity pivot, and a story out of Washington D.C. that genuinely defies belief.

The Versailles Mirage and Trump’s Foreign Policy Hammer

We start with the breaking news that has completely upended global risk models over the weekend. If you were coasting on the optimism of last week’s diplomatic gatherings, it is time for a cold reality check.

The on-again, off-again peace talks that dominated headlines last week at the Palace of Versailles were, as it turns out, nothing more than a superficial Memorandum of Understanding. The ink was barely dry before the entire apparatus fell apart, and the talks are now officially off again.

For a detailed breakdown of how quickly this diplomatic effort disintegrated, you can track the real-time timeline via this update on X.

The catalyst for this sudden collapse can be traced directly back to a characteristically explosive rhetorical salvo from Donald Trump.

The exact nature of the breakdown and the response from the Middle Eastern delegations is captured clearly in the news brief here.

The Iranian delegation has interpreted Trump's comments as a direct assassination threat (wild!), halting any further diplomatic progression until a personal apology is issued and Israel fully withdraws from southern Lebanon.

This sudden return to maximum tension reminds us that geopolitical risk cannot be modelled cleanly on a spreadsheet. Just when the market thinks a premium needs to be shaved off, a single social media post or media quote can completely derail the narrative.

The Playbook: Forget shorting oil, look to copper

When headlines like the ones in hit the trading desks, the knee-jerk reaction for many retail investors is to panic-buy energy or attempt to trade the volatility of the crude oil curve.

But navigating the short-term swings of oil in this environment is a dangerous game. Instead of trying to time the geopolitical premium of energy, now is as good a time as ever to look at the structural realities of global industrial demand.

The strategy right now should not be about being short oil but rather ensuring you are structural and fundamentally long copper.

No matter what comes of these diplomatic standoffs, threats, or failed memorandums of understanding, the structural path for global infrastructure remains unchanged.

The world still needs copper. Whether it is the ongoing electrification of global power grids, the physical building out of massive data centres to support the artificial intelligence boom, or the transition toward renewable energy assets, copper remains the non-negotiable baseline commodity.

Geopolitics might cause short-term noise, but the physical supply deficit of high-grade copper is a multi-year reality that cannot be tweeted away.

To help you get ahead of this curve, we are putting together a dedicated platform for the companies on the ground finding the next generation of supply.

The upcoming Small Caps Copper Explorers Conference is designed to showcase the businesses positioned to capitalised on this exact macro trend.

The event will feature presentations from key players in the sector, including Alma Metals (ASX: ALM) and Redstone Resources (ASX: RDS). As we continue to refine and finalise the speaker list, you can secure your spot and monitor updates by registering here.

The Newish Theory of Things Podcast and a New Team Member

Expanding on these commodity insights and broader macroeconomic themes, my good friend Heath Moss and I have tweaked the usual podcast format to include more from the Small Caps site.

We have put together the very first edition of the “Theory of Things Investment Podcast, powered by Small Caps.”

You can listen to our latest episode, where we break down market positioning, macro traps, and where we are looking for value, via this link.

This inaugural episode serves a dual purpose, as it gives us the perfect opportunity to introduce our new Premium Account Manager, Charleigh Jones, to the wider Small Caps team.

Charleigh is going to be instrumental in driving our client relationships and managing our premium offerings as we expand our digital and event footprint. A massive welcome to Charleigh; we are thrilled to have you on board.

Meanwhile, in Washington: Peroxide and no-bid contracts

Moving over to the funny pages now, because when Donald Trump isn’t disrupting international diplomacy, there is an absolute debacle unfolding on the ground in Washington D.C. that proves reality is frequently stranger than fiction.

If you want an example of government bureaucracy and procurement gone spectacularly wrong, look no further than the current disaster at the Lincoln Monument Reflecting Pool.

Someone inside the administrative machinery made the brilliant executive decision to pour 12% hydrogen peroxide directly onto fresh paint. The resulting chemical reaction has turned a prominent national landmark into a complete and utter operational mess.

But the real story isn't just the chemical mistake; it is the absolute circus surrounding the procurement of the solution. The below shows the individual who somehow won the no-bid contract to completely change out the purification system on the iconic Washington pool.

Looking at the individual featured above, sporting a velvet maroon jacket, you would be forgiven for thinking this was a character dropped out of a satirical Hollywood film or a mid-century mob drama.

I genuinely have to explicitly state that this is a real photo and not a hyper-realistic AI generation. The fact that we have to clarify what is real and what is artificial intelligence in corporate and political reporting these days is wild, but the image is entirely authentic.

If you want a full, unfiltered explainer on how this happened, delivered by the most uniquely qualified pool specialist imaginable, you need to see the video update.

You can watch the full explainer from the pooliest pool guy on the internet here.

It serves as a stark reminder that if you’re going to hold a position over the weekend, best not to make it one dependent on the diplomatic competence of people who can’t get pool filters correct. 

Take it out there, keep your eyes on the copper charts, check out the new podcast episode, and we will see you on the next rotation of the wheel.

Stay safe and all the best,

James