The big news that everyone was waiting for finally happened over the weekend.
CBA called in police to investigate a potential $1bn mortgage fraud black hole.
This is apparently endemic to all the big banks and will change how home lending works in this country forever.
But you weren’t tracking that were you?
Iran strikes began on Saturday evening and that’s now the news cycle.
CBA and the banks have dodged a massive PR bullet this week, but I insist it’s given the airtime it deserves.
However…
I won’t lie, there’s something about watching another American war on the couch with my youngest that was somewhat sentimental. Reminiscent of live footage coming down the news pipes when I was about 10 for Iraq 1.
Pulling open maps and explaining where things are and how close things are to each other.
She’s about the same age I was and it’s healthy to have an interest. I’ve told her the best answer if anyone talks about it at school is just to say “I’m monitoring the situation” and that gets you 70% of the way there. Trust me.
Europe Springs into Action… Eventually
Never fear — the Europeans have swiftly rushed into action after the weekend and the sacred Second Brekky Monday.
Ursula fired off a tweet that basically said, “We’re not monitoring the situation but we will later,” which is Brussels‑speak for: someone sent some texts around about extra pastries needed for the 10am huddle.
“We’re not monitoring the situation until Monday mid morning, possibly”
Don’t make me tap the sign…
But seriously, no point sugar‑coating it—it’s grim.
All we can hope for is minimal casualties and that the people of Iran do what’s right in the long run.
Markets hate uncertainty, but they absolutely despise Middle‑East‑plus‑shipping‑lanes‑plus‑oil‑routes uncertainty.
Oil is up 15% this morning and Bloomberg has it set for something drastic.
The Dallas Fed has a closure of some length putting on around 1.3% headline annual inflation in the States.
Kiss any rate cut chat good bye, if there was any left.
Where the Action Really Is: Hormuz
Always the Strait of Hormuz.
Those oil‑traffic tweets were a masterclass in “here’s why your petrol price is about to get weird.”
Tankers stacked like dominos, captains doing three‑point turns in waterways that were never designed for three‑point turns, and everyone pretending this is fine.
Cheeky, but accurate: the world’s most important commodity still moves like it’s 1974.
Two reasons for any current closure and it’s not actually Iran parking their navy in the way like many suggested 10 years ago:
GPS spoofing. Ships don’t know where they are-
War risk insurers are pulling policies for ships travelling through Hormuz.
US Markets Were Actually Looking Cheap
Before the Iran war detonated across everyone’s weekend, things were starting to look… dare we say… cheap.
That chart of the S&P 500 vs MSCI World ex‑US told the whole story.
The US had been outperforming the rest of the world for years, but the ratio was finally rolling over.
A rare moment where global equities looked like they might actually offer value again - and then, boom, geopolitics said “not today.”
But we’ll see. Monitoring the situation.
Friday’s Pod: Metals and bonds
If you missed Friday’s episode of the pod, we got into metals and bonds — both of which suddenly matter a whole lot more now that the Middle East is back on the front page.
Metals as the geopolitical hedge, bonds as the “please make this stop” trade.
Even in War… the Pranks Continue
Because humanity is nothing if not bizarrely consistent, even in the middle of a war weekend, someone still found time for a prank.
The video says it all — the world may be on fire, but the internet refuses to take a day off.
And if you think your Monday is bad you could be on weekend shift for Georgian ATC.
We are long hard assets and energy stocks.
Rates up and all the things that follow that too.
Stay safe and all the best,
James
